Favorites and Sleepers: Nashville

Josef Newgarden enters the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix presented by OnlyBulls on Sunday with momentum on his side.

The Team Penske driver has won the last three short-oval races, dating to last season's Nashville Superspeedway finale. He has victories this season March 7 at Phoenix Raceway and June 7 at World Wide Technology Raceway.

Now Newgarden returns to his hometown track at Nashville Superspeedway as the driver to beat on the 1.33-mile concrete oval.

History suggests Nashville rewards proven winners. Of the 10 previous NTT INDYCAR SERIES races at Nashville Superspeedway, the winners have combined for nine Indianapolis 500 victories and 16 series championships. Only Alex Barron and Colton Herta have won at the track without later claiming either achievement.

Chevrolet also has enjoyed a commanding advantage on short ovals since the introduction of the 2.2-liter twin-turbo V-6 engine in 2012. Chevrolet-powered drivers have won 33 of the 42 races contested at Iowa Speedway, Milwaukee Mile, Nashville Superspeedway, Phoenix Raceway and World Wide Technology Raceway during that span.

Here's a look at the drivers to watch in Sunday's 300-lap race (5:30 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One, INDYCAR Radio powered by OnlyBulls).

Favorites

Josef Newgarden (No. 2 Astemo Team Penske Chevrolet)

Newgarden qualified second and finished third at Nashville in 2024 before winning his hometown race last season. He already owns short-oval victories this year at Phoenix and World Wide Technology Raceway. Since 2019, Newgarden has won 12 of the last 26 short-oval races and owns 20 career oval victories. He ranks second in oval points this season.

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 Odyssey Battery Team Penske Chevrolet)

McLaughlin finished fifth in 2024 at Nashville and third last year. In 20 career starts on short ovals, he has two victories and 15 top-five finishes. He also ranks third in oval points after finishes of eighth at Phoenix, fifth at World Wide Technology Raceway and third in the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge.

Pato O'Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

O'Ward (photo, top) finished second to Herta in 2024 at Nashville and appeared poised to win last year's race after earning the pole and leading a race-high 116 laps before crashing while leading. In 34 career oval starts, O'Ward owns four victories, nine runner-up finishes and 24 top-five results. He enters Nashville fresh off his Mid-Ohio victory.

David Malukas (No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet)

Malukas has shown front-running speed on every oval this season. He won the NTT P1 Award at Phoenix, led a race-high 73 laps and finished third before adding a runner-up finish in the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge. He also enters Nashville as the top oval scorer this season, holding a 116-107 advantage over Newgarden.

Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27 Sam’s Club Honda)

Kirkwood won the Nashville pole in 2024 and has finished fourth and sixth in two starts at the track. He also finished second at Phoenix and sixth at World Wide Technology Raceway this season and brings four consecutive top-10 finishes into the weekend.

Sleepers

Christian Rasmussen (No. 21 Splenda Chevrolet)

Rasmussen recorded top-10 finishes in five of six oval races last season, highlighted by a Milwaukee victory. He was battling for the Phoenix win this spring before late contact dropped him to 14th and rebounded with a third-place finish at World Wide Technology Raceway. He enters Nashville with two top-10 finishes in his last three starts on the season.

Will Power (No. 26 TWG AI Honda)

Power charged from the rear of the field to the lead at Phoenix before late contact relegated him to 16th. He owns 10 career oval victories and enters Nashville with three consecutive top-10 finishes this season.

Marcus Ericsson (No. 28 Delaware Life Honda)

Ericsson led a race-high 114 laps at World Wide Technology Raceway before finishing second. That performance could be a sign of stronger oval results to come over the remainder of the season.

Marcus Armstrong (No. 66 Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb Agajanian Honda)

Armstrong has put together a strong oval campaign with finishes of fifth at Phoenix, fifth in the Indianapolis 500 and ninth at World Wide Technology Raceway. He has the sixth-most oval points scored entering Nashville.

Rinus VeeKay (No. 76 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet)

VeeKay has found speed on ovals this season, finishing fourth at World Wide Technology Raceway and sixth in the Indianapolis 500. He ranks ninth in oval points and has two top-four finishes in his last three starts.