Numbers Prove Josef Newgarden, Pato O’Ward Tough To Top on Ovals

Josef Newgarden has become on oval tracks what Alex Palou has become everywhere else in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES.

When the series unloads at a road or street course, Palou, who has won 13 of the last 38 series races overall, is expected to contend. When the schedule turns to an oval, all eyes shift to Newgarden.

The numbers leave little room for debate.

Newgarden (photo, top) has won 13 of the last 30 oval races dating to the start of the 2021 season, a strike rate of 43 percent. No other driver is close. Pato O'Ward ranks second with four victories during that span.

Even more impressive, Newgarden's last 10 NTT INDYCAR SERIES victories have all come on ovals. His last road course victory came in 2022 at Road America.

That level of dominance is even more remarkable considering oval racing demands a different skill set than any other discipline in INDYCAR.

Unlike road and street circuits, where heavy braking zones create passing opportunities and mistakes can be recovered, oval racing often becomes a high-speed chess match. Drivers spend hundreds of laps inches apart at speeds exceeding 200 mph while managing tire wear, dirty air, traffic, fuel strategy and constantly changing track conditions. One slight lift of the throttle or a mistimed move in traffic can be the difference between Victory Lane and the wall.

Few drivers have mastered those variables better than Newgarden.

Newgarden, a native of Hendersonville, Tennessee, enters the Borchetta Bourbon Music City Grand Prix presented by OnlyBulls this Sunday seeking his third victory of the season after wins at Phoenix Raceway and World Wide Technology Raceway. He also won last year's race at the 1.33-mile concrete oval at Nashville, making the driver of the No. 2 Astemo Team Penske Chevrolet the clear favorite to extend his oval supremacy.

O'Ward Remains Closest Challenger

If anyone has challenged Newgarden on ovals, it's O'Ward.

The two have finished first and second nine times since O'Ward (photo, above, front) entered the series in 2020, with seven of those duels occurring on an oval.

Newgarden prevailed in 2020 and 2021 at World Wide Technology Raceway, 2022 at Iowa Speedway, 2023 in Texas Motor Speedway and the 2024 Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge. O'Ward answered with victories over Newgarden in 2021 at Texas and last year at Iowa.

Short ovals, in particular, have belonged to Newgarden.

Since 2019, the series has contested 26 races on ovals measuring 1.5 miles or less. Newgarden has won 12 of them. O'Ward is next with three victories.

O'Ward's oval résumé remains among the strongest in the series, featuring four victories, nine runner-up finishes and 24 top-five finishes in 34 oval starts.

He also came within sight of another victory last season at Nashville before crashing from the lead after leading a race-high 116 laps.

Veterans Know How To Win

Experience matters on ovals.

Scott Dixon's 25 career oval victories lead all active drivers, including three consecutive wins at Nashville from 2006-08. While six-time series champion Dixon has accumulated the 11th-most points on ovals this season in the No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda, he remains a threat whenever the series races on an oval.

Newgarden ranks second among active drivers with 20 career oval victories.

Will Power is third with 10, although only one has come since 2019. That victory came in 2024 at Iowa Speedway with Team Penske. Power enters Nashville on a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes, his first season driving the No. 26 TWG AI Honda for Andretti Global.

Scott McLaughlin has also become one of the series' premier short-oval racers. His last two victories came in 2024 on ovals at Iowa Speedway and Milwaukee Mile. In 20 career short-oval starts, he has two wins and 15 top-five finishes, including a third-place finish in this year’s Indy 500.

Alexander Rossi, Graham Rahal and Palou each own two career oval victories. Kyle Kirkwood, Marcus Ericsson and Christian Rasmussen have one apiece. The only other drivers to win an oval race since 2021 are Helio Castroneves (2021 Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge) and Colton Herta (2024 Nashville).

Oval Standings Show Team Penske's Strength

Despite Newgarden's dominance, David Malukas enters Nashville leading the 2026 oval standings.

Malukas (photo, above) has scored 116 points across Phoenix, the Indianapolis 500 and World Wide Technology Raceway while still chasing his first career series victory. He has finished second five times in 72 career starts, including this year's Indianapolis 500, his first driving the No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet.

He earned his first NTT P1 Award at Phoenix, led a race-high 73 laps before finishing third, started third in the Indianapolis 500 and qualified second before finishing seventh at World Wide Technology Raceway. He has started from the front row in all three oval races this season.

Newgarden has just nine fewer points than Malukas this season on ovals. McLaughlin and Indianapolis 500 winner Felix Rosenqvist are tied for third with 94 points, giving Team Penske three of the top four drivers on ovals this season.

That should come as little surprise. Team Penske owns a series-record 130 oval victories. Chip Ganassi Racing ranks second among active teams with 56, while Andretti Global is third with 46.

O'Ward rounds out the top five with 92 oval points this season.

Marcus Armstrong has quietly put together one of the season's strongest oval campaigns. The Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb Agajanian driver is sixth in oval points after finishes of fifth at Phoenix, fifth in the Indianapolis 500 and ninth at World Wide Technology Raceway.

Kirkwood is seventh, Ericsson eighth, Rinus VeeKay ninth and Santino Ferrucci rounds out the top 10.