Favorites and Sleepers: Mid-Ohio

Christian Lundgaard has won two of the three permanent road course races this NTT INDYCAR SERIES season (at Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and Road America). The Arrow McLaren driver finished second in the other (at Barber Motorsports Park).

Yet, Chip Ganassi Racing remains the team to beat entering this weekend’s race at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course.

Scott Dixon edged teammate Alex Palou in last year's race, giving Chip Ganassi Racing its second Mid-Ohio victory in three seasons. CGR has a race-record 13 wins on the 2.258-mile permanent road course in Lexington, Ohio.

Here are the favorites and sleepers for The Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio Presented by the 2027 CRV Hybrid, airing at 12:30 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX, FOX One, FOX Deportes and INDYCAR Radio powered by OnlyBulls.

Favorites

Christian Lundgaard (No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

Lundgaard qualified fifth and ninth while finishing fourth and seventh in his final two Mid-Ohio starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The Dane started second and finished third in his first season with Arrow McLaren last year. While he has yet to lead a lap at Mid-Ohio, he owns a 6.3 average finish. Lundgaard has finished second, first and first on natural road courses this season and leads the series with 143 points on that track type.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Dixon is the last driver to win consecutive Mid-Ohio races, accomplishing the feat in 2011 and 2012. He enters this weekend with seven victories in 22 starts at the track. His finishes in the last five races there are fourth, fifth, second, 27th and first. Dixon owns a 6.0 average finish at Mid-Ohio and has led 274 laps. He ranks fifth in road course points this season.

Alex Palou (No. 10 OpenAI Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Palou has finished first or second in each of the last four Mid-Ohio races, including a victory in 2023. He led 75 laps in this event last season before a late mistake allowed Dixon to take the win. Palou has led 176 laps at Mid-Ohio, all coming in his last three starts. He won at Barber Motorsports Park and has accumulated 118 natural road course points this season, second-most in the series.

David Malukas (No. 12 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet)

Malukas has shown speed at Mid-Ohio but chases a breakthrough result. He owns a 9.0 average starting position, including a career-best third in 2024. His best finish is sixth in 2023 with Dale Coyne Racing. This season, he finished fourth at Barber and second in both the Sonsio Grand Prix and Road America. He ranks third in permanent road course points.

Graham Rahal (No. 15 Ariel Corporation Honda)

Mid-Ohio is Rahal's home track and one of his strongest venues. He has recorded 10 top-10 finishes in his last 13 starts there. Rahal qualified second in 2023 and ran near the front before a slow final pit stop dropped him to seventh. On natural road courses this season, he finished third at Barber, third in the Sonsio Grand Prix and was running third on the final lap at Road America before finishing 23rd after contact from Will Power. He ranks fourth in road course points.

Sleepers

Nolan Siegel (No. 6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

Siegel earned a fourth-place starting spot at Mid-Ohio last season and finished 11th. His natural road course finishes this year are 18th, 10th and 21st. The Road America result doesn't reflect his speed as he spent the weekend consistently running inside the top 10 in every session and was spun while running ninth on the final lap.

Kyffin Simpson (No. 8 Sunoco Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Simpson started third, led a lap and appeared poised for a strong result before pit road issues dropped him to 10th in last year’s Mid-Ohio race. He has finished 20th, 12th and fourth on natural road courses this season and ranks 10th in road course points.

Will Power (No. 26 TWG AI Honda)

Power has led 206 laps and recorded seven top-four finishes in his last 11 Mid-Ohio starts. He finished third in both 2022 and 2023 before slipping to 11th and 26th the last two seasons. Power has stood on the podium in 44.4 percent of his 18 starts at the track, including a win in 2020. His third-place finish at Road America helped him climb to seventh in road course points.

Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27 Sam’s Club Honda)

Kirkwood's Mid-Ohio finishes are 26th, 17th, eighth and eighth. He has shown steady road course form this season with finishes of fifth at Barber, ninth in the Sonsio Grand Prix and 10th at Road America. He had the fastest lap in last week’s Mid-Ohio test.

Marcus Armstrong (No. 66 Meyer Sank Racing w/Curb Agajanian Honda)

Armstrong started eighth and finished seventh at Mid-Ohio last season, giving him two top-10 finishes in three starts at the track. He has finished sixth, 11th and 24th on natural road courses this season. The Road America result is misleading. Armstrong was first or second in both practice sessions, qualified third and was leading with three laps remaining before a mechanical failure ended his chance at victory.