Favorites and Sleepers: Sonsio Grand Prix

Note: INDYCAR.com’s Eric Smith takes a lighthearted look before each NTT INDYCAR SERIES race at drivers with an inside line to Victory Lane and others who could surprise with a strong result.

Before the 2024 Sonsio Grand Prix, the event produced six consecutive different winners. Will Power won in 2018, followed by Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon, Rinus VeeKay, Colton Herta and Alex Palou over the next five years.

Then Palou won again in 2024. And again in 2025. Can he make it four straight in Saturday’s Sonsio Grand Prix (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX One, INDYCAR Radio powered by OnlyBulls)?

Saturday’s 85-lap race on the 14-turn, 2.439-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course shapes up as Palou vs. the field. Which side wins the sixth race of the season?

Favorites

Pato O’Ward (No. 5 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

O’Ward has reached the Firestone Fast Six in six of his last seven IMS road course qualifying efforts, including an NTT P1 Award in the 2021 Gallagher Grand Prix. He started eighth last year but finished second, his third podium in his last four starts here. He also was runner-up in the 2023 Sonsio Grand Prix. O’Ward posted five top-six finishes in seven natural road course races last season but opened this year’s slate with a 17th-place finish at Barber.

Christian Lundgaard (No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet)

Lundgaard said he missed the setup last year, starting14th and finishing 16th in his first IMS road course race with Arrow McLaren. Before that, he never started worse than eighth in six attempts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The Dane qualified on the front row in three straight IMS road course races, including the 2023 Sonsio Grand Prix pole, and finished second, fourth, fourth and third in four starts before last season. On natural road courses last year, he had five podiums in seven races, including three runner-up finishes. He opened 2026 by climbing from 10th to second at Barber, a race he likely could have won without a 17.8-second pit stop.

Scott Dixon (No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Including the doubleheader years, Chip Ganassi Racing has won four straight IMS road course races, with Dixon taking the 2023 summer event. Dixon has 15 top-10 finishes in 17 starts on this track. He recorded five top-10s in seven natural road course races last year, with a worst finish of 12th in this event. He finished seventh at Barber.

Alex Palou (No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda)

Palou has won the last three road course races here and owns 11 straight podium finishes on natural road courses. He won five such races last year and opened natural road courses in 2026 with a victory at Barber. In his last 22 natural road course starts, his worst finish is seventh. In that span, he has 12 wins, three runner-up finishes, two thirds and 20 top-five results.

Will Power (No. 26 TWG AI Honda)

The all-time leader with five wins and six NTT P1 Awards on this course, Power has two wins, a runner-up in 2024 and three third-place finishes in his last eight starts here. All occurred with Team Penske. What can he do with Andretti Global?

Sleepers

Scott McLaughlin (No. 3 Sonsio Vehicle Protection Chevrolet)

McLaughlin has led 17 laps in eight IMS road course races, including two since 2023. He has made the Firestone Fast Six twice, one coming last year when he qualified and finished fourth.

Graham Rahal (No. 15 Fifth Third Bank Honda)

This has been one of Rahal’s best tracks, with 15 top-10 finishes in his last 16 starts. He qualified second and finished sixth last year and earned the NTT P1 Award in August 2023. In that 2023 weekend, Rahal led a race-high 36 of 85 laps in that race before finishing second to Dixon by .4779 of a second, the closest finish in IMS road course history. He qualified and finished third at Barber this year and enters this weekend 10th in points.

Romain Grosjean (No. 18 BMax Honda)

This was not a strong track for Grosjean after leaving Dale Coyne Racing, with a best finish of 11th in his last five starts. But with Coyne he qualified first and third and finished second in both races during his 2021 rookie season. This entry finished ninth last year with Rinus VeeKay.

Felix Rosenqvist (No. 60 SiriusXM Honda)

Rosenqvist earned his first career NTT P1 Award here in 2019. He has five top-10 finishes in his last six IMS road course starts, including two 10th-place finishes in his first two races with Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb Agajanian.

Marcus Armstrong (No. 66 Remax Honda)

Meyer Shank Racing has shown speed here, with Jack Harvey qualifying third, second, sixth, seventh, third and seventh from 2019-21. Armstrong qualified eighth and finished fifth in 2023 with Chip Ganassi Racing. In two starts here with MSR, he finished fifth and seventh. He also finished sixth at Barber.