Inside Line: Biggest Surprise Through Four Races?

Today’s question: What surprised you the most in the first four races of the 2026 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season?

Curt Cavin: I don’t know what I expected from Mick Schumacher’s first season, and the series newcomer certainly has had some challenging moments, including being collected in someone else’s first-lap mess in St. Petersburg. But his performance last month at Phoenix Raceway was remarkable (photo, top). First oval race, and he qualified fourth. And it wasn’t like he just borrowed someone’s setup sheet and stuck his right foot to the floor. (That’s doing a disservice not only to his talent but also the trickiness of that reconfigured short oval.) In the race, Schumacher more than held his own, running in the sixth position on the lap prior to his pit stop at Lap 71. A wheel gun failure effectively cost him two laps to the leaders, yet he still managed to complete 248 of the 250 laps. There are many, many examples of drivers whose first short oval race didn’t go as well.

Eric Smith: David Malukas being the top Team Penske driver is my biggest surprise so far. In his first season with the team, Malukas (photo, above) is still searching for his first career win -- both with Penske and across 61 previous starts. But even with Scott McLaughlin winning the pole at St. Petersburg and Josef Newgarden capturing the win in the second race of the season at Phoenix, it’s Malukas who sits fourth in points. He holds a three-point edge over Newgarden in fifth and a 17-point advantage over McLaughlin in seventh. Malukas has opened the year with three top-six finishes in four races, earned his first career pole at Phoenix and delivering a season-best third-place finish after leading 73 of 250 laps. A victory feels imminent, but his early emergence as Penske’s points leader is something few could have predicted this quickly.

Arni Sribhen: Quick, name the highest-ranked driver in the standings who doesn’t drive from Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing, Andretti Global or Arrow McLaren. If you guessed Marcus Armstrong (photo, above), give yourself a pat on the back. The Kiwi is off to a solid start to the 2026 campaign, notching a season-best finish of fifth at Phoenix among his three top-10 finishes. In fact, Armstrong’s average finish of 8.0 over the first quarter of the season is bested by only Kyle Kirkwood, Christan Lundgaard, David Malukas, Alex Palou and Pato O’Ward. The Meyer Shank Racing driver’s speed isn’t just for race day either. He’s made the Firestone Fast Six in two of the three road/street course races and narrowly missed making the final round of qualifying at St. Pete. Armstrong is quietly showing up as a threat each and every week.

Paul Kelly: Who knows how long it will last, but I’m honestly surprised Alex Palou isn’t leading the standings after four races. Palou and the No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing team were a steamroller last season, winning eight of 17 races en route to their third consecutive Astor Challenge Cup and fourth in the last five years. And Palou has been no slouch this year, either, with three podium finishes and two victories. Yet Kyle Kirkwood of Andretti Global is out front by two points, mainly due to his victory at Arlington and recording top-five finishes in every race this season. I figured Palou already may have repeated his jailbreak to start the 2025 season, winning three of the first four. He still has won two of four, yet Kirkwood (photo, above) has shown surprising strength on all types of circuits as he stands in front of the Palou onslaught. I hope Kirkwood can continue the fight all the way through the season finale at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca and we get a proper head-to-head title race throughout the summer, unlike last season, when the race felt like it was over after Palou swept May to win five of the first six races.