Predict Indy Pole Winner at Your Risk after Wild Fast Friday
MAY 16, 2025
It turns out that Will Power, the winner of the 2018 Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge and a two-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES champion, has mastered a crystal ball.
“(He) can predict the future,” Team Penske teammate Josef Newgarden said.
Two years ago, Power predicted his qualifying draw number and last year he forecasted a Team Penske sweep of the front row, which was realized when Scott McLaughlin won the pole by slightly besting Power and Newgarden. So, what does that Australian foresee for this weekend’s PPG Presents Armed Forces Qualifying session?
“I think one of our cars will be on pole, and I’m not sure about the front row lockout,” he said Friday. “We have the potential to do it, but the wind is going to play a part.”
2024 “500” pole winner McLaughlin had Fast Friday presented by Turtle Wax’s best single lap at 233.954 mph, but qualifying requires four big laps to earn the pole. Power expects all three of Roger Penske’s drivers to qualify among the fastest six, putting them in prime position to win “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing” on Sunday, May 25. But many drivers have shown they’ll give Team Penske a run for the dough.
Chip Ganassi Racing’s Alex Palou, the series leader, and 2008 Indy winner Scott Dixon delivered Fast Friday’s two best four-lap runs in their Hondas. Dixon, who led the way at 232.386 mph, will be aiming to tie Rick Mears for the all-time Indy pole record with six. Palou won the pole here in 2023.
No one should sleep on Helio Castroneves of Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb-Agajanian, who has four career Indy poles, and Ed Carpenter of Ed Carpenter Racing, who has three such honors. Marco Andretti of Andretti Herta w/Marco & Curb-Agajanian won the pole for the 2020 race.
There were plenty of fresh contenders at the top portion of the Fast Friday speed chart. Kyle Kirkwood of Andretti Global, Christian Lundgaard of Arrow McLaren, Conor Daly of Juncos Hollinger Racing, Marcus Armstrong of Meyer Shank Racing w/Curb-Agajanian and Sting Ray Robb of Juncos Hollinger Racing were among the top 10. Even rookie Robert Shwartzman of first-year PREMA Racing joined the top third of the field, so this thing is wide open.
Saturday’s qualifying session will determine the top 30 drivers for the race. Those drivers in positions 13 through 30 will have their spots locked in; the top 12 will advance to Sunday’s Top 12 qualifying session at 4:05 p.m. ET in the run for the pole. Drivers can make as many four-lap runs as time permits, but to join the fast lane the qualified time must be withdrawn.
The four slowest drivers in Saturday’s qualifying session will be forced to fight for one of the final three starting positions, and there is often a surprise included. Two years ago, it was Graham Rahal, who failed to qualify for the race for the first time in his career. Last year, 2022 winner Marcus Ericsson, who finished second in ’23, had to survive the Last Chance Qualifying round to participate in the “500” for the sixth time.
Power need not be a weatherman to know it’s going to be gusty. Wind is always a factor at the massively large Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but this weekend figures to present a unique challenge, particularly on Day 1 of qualifying, which is Saturday. Many believe it will be a crosswind from west to east with gusts of 20-25 mph. The temperatures will change, too, as it will be cooler than Thursday and Friday, when temperatures soared into the upper 80s.
Compounding the challenge is the additional rear weight these cars carry with the implementation of INDYCAR’s hybrid technology. Drivers have grappled with how and when and where to deploy the stored energy to maximize horsepower. Using all of it seems to contribute to a slight drag of the engine, which is not ideal in this competitive environment.
The estimate is that the hybrid system can provide an additional 60 horsepower, which is significant when qualifying runs of four laps (10 miles) are often separated by thousands of a second. Factor in the extra 100 horsepower that comes with the increased boost, and there is a lot for the drivers to manage. Remember, this is the first time the system has been used at Indy.
IMS and INDYCAR president J. Douglas Boles said drivers have told him that of all the venues on this year’s schedule, IMS is going to see the most significant impact of the hybrid.
“I asked why, and they say, ‘Well, you think about Indianapolis, how trimmed out we are, especially in qualifying, how there's just very, very little drag on the race cars, we're trying to make them go as fast as they can, and … any little incremental difference in horsepower makes a difference,” Boles said.
Power said the drivers will be “on a knife’s edge” even more than usual. Kirkwood called Friday’s conditions “scary,” and he noted that almost no one completed a four-lap qualifying simulation as the cars were darting around the 2.5-mile oval.
“It doesn’t look fun,” Kirkwood said of stringing four fast laps together.
That point was proven early Friday afternoon when Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyffin Simpson lost the back end of his car in Turn 4, leading to wall contact that nearly flipped his No. 8 Journie Rewards Chip Ganassi Racing Honda. Later, 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson spun his No. 17 HendrickCars.com Arrow McLaren Chevrolet and hit the SAFER Barrier nose-first in Turn 3.
“You saw a couple of crashes even at the test we had here (in April),” Power said. “I think the wind is the thing that will play the biggest part in how difficult it’s going to be.”
Said Dixon: “It’s easier just to miss things, I guess. If you’re getting gusts, gears are a little bit harder to get right. It might change some of the hybrid strategy if you’re getting a lot off the (rev) limiter. You might (regenerate) and deploy (the stored energy) more throughout the run as opposed to other strategies that you have in mind. It’s just more variables. I think it will definitely be difficult.”
And then there is the degradation of Firestone’s rear Firehawks due to the hybrid weight. Even if the weekend temperatures drop some, it’s still going to be a challenge.
“Put our big boy shoes on,” rookie Louis Foster of Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing said.
Saturday’s qualifying session begins at 11 a.m. ET. It’s time to buckle up.