SONOMA, California – There is simplicity in the formula: win first, then worry Scott Dixon’s finish later. Hope it’s terrible. Don’t win, don’t bother.
With a double-points award making large points swings possible for both wins and disaster finishes, such is the only route to a Verizon IndyCar Series title defense for Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden or a second title for teammate Will Power in the INDYCAR Grand Prix of Sonoma on Sunday. Each trails points leader Dixon by 87 points.
“It’s not as advantageous, that’s for sure,” Newgarden said, comparing this scenario with his approach last season at Sonoma when he was able to finish second to teammate Simon Pagenaud and still retain the title.
“Last year, you knew if you won the race, you won the championship. Which is nice when you have it in that position because then you know if you just win the race, you’re going to be the champion. Now when we focus on winning the race – and we do that anyway – we don’t know if that wins the championship.
“Some pretty astronomical things need to work out for it to happen, but it could,” Newgarden said. “You never know. So, the only thing we can do is try to win the race and see what happens.”
Newgarden or Power must win and Dixon must finish 24th and not lead the most laps, or finish last in the 25-car field for there to be a chance. In addition, Alexander Rossi needs to finish 10th or worse.
“I’ve read it all. I know the scenarios, but then you don’t think about it because you don’t control it,” Newgarden said. “Thinking about it in the race doesn’t do you any good.
“You’re just trying to win the race, and that’s what you do on a normal weekend anyway.”
Dixon used a win at Sonoma in 2015 to overcome a 47-point deficit and win the championship on a tiebreaker when points leader Juan Pablo Montoya, then with Team Penske’s INDYCAR program, finished sixth.
Therein could be the roadmap for 85 laps around the undulating 2.385-mile road course.
“Dixon, I remember that,” Power recalled. “He was able to take risks on restarts and went for it while we kind of got in each other's way, actually. But yes, from that respect, (I) can be quite aggressive, nothing to lose. Obviously, Scott has got the most to lose, and then Rossi really has nothing to lose, too. I mean, he's probably just going to have to get after it as well, because he probably has to win the race to win.”
Power’s predicament worsened with a seventh-place qualifying effort on Saturday, the worst of the season for the series’ co-pole leader in 2018 (four). The 54-time pole winner, second on the all-time list, had averaged a start of 2.5 entering the weekend.
Newgarden will start third. Both Team Penske drivers benefited from Ryan Hunter-Reay nabbing the pole and taking a potentially crucial bonus point from Dixon.
The weekend has been an adventure for Newgarden already. He was still suffering from food poisoning on Saturday – probably the lamb he had for dinner on Thursday, he said – and missed the first practice session Friday with a fuel-pressure problem on his No. 1 Verizon Team Penske Chevrolet.
Newgarden has never won at Sonoma but Power has claimed victory in three of his previous nine tries, most recently in 2013. While the outlook may be bleak, Power hasn’t thrown in the towel on the 2018 championship.
“It would be just an amazing occurrence for that to happen, like (Dixon) to have an engine issue or a gearbox issue,” the reigning Indianapolis 500 winner said. “Yeah, it could happen. I've had both this year. And then you need Rossi to have a bad day as well.
“Obviously it's pretty stacked against us, but all we can do is just focus on putting ourselves in a position to win. The others we can't control.”
The INDYCAR Grand Prix of Sonoma airs live at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday on NBCSN and the Advance Auto Parts INDYCAR Radio Network.