INDIANAPOLIS – It isn’t exactly WAR or BABIP or DRS or wOBA or any of the other mind-scrambling analytic categories from baseball, but the Indianapolis 500 has its own, far less complicated sabermetric measurement: NTS.
It stands for “no-tow speed,” and it’s a more reliable measurement of speed at Indianapolis Motor Speedway than the standard speed chart. For the uninitiated, NTS is the lap speed when a driver isn’t within 7 seconds of a car in front, thereby incapable of benefitting from the tow – or draft – of the car ahead.
So, if you’re trying to predict which drivers will make it to the fast nine during Saturday’s first day of qualifying for the 102nd Indianapolis 500 presented by PennGrade Motor Oil, you check NTS. And if you checked it at the end of Fast Friday’s seven-hour practice session, you noticed some promising prospects for a number of drivers – some you expect to see, and some you don’t.
INDIANAPOLIS 500 PRESENTED BY PENNGRADE MOTOR OIL: Qualifying order
Those you expect:
Team Penske. All four Penske drivers – Helio Castroneves, Josef Newgarden, Will Power and Simon Pagenaud – were above 227.8 mph with their no-tow laps after extra turbocharger boost was added Friday per INDYCAR rules. Don’t be surprised if all four Chevrolet-powered drivers start among the first three rows for the May 27 race.
Power, in particular, has been fast on his own with the new universal aero kit, recording the best no-tow lap of the week – 229.780 mph on Friday – but his three teammates also have been reliably fast without help.
“The car is sensitive, but it's a very sane aero kit,” Pagenaud said. “It's very enjoyable to drive around. It doesn't surprise you like the old aero kit used to do. It's really, really fun to drive. The adjustments are good. It just takes time to understand it all.”
Castroneves, who has four pole positions at Indy and three race wins, is trying to move into second place alone on the list of all-time Indy poles. Former Team Penske driver Rick Mears – one of Castroneves’ spotters for this race – holds the record with six.
“It's not my first rodeo,” Castroneves said. “I have a lot of experience. I’m just trying to find the database in my head here to see which car in the past that I ran before with these kind of conditions. … At this point, the car is different – no question, comparing to last year. Everybody was used to a lot more downforce, so you could really step on it, flat out anyplace you go. Now, you’ve got to drive.”
Sebastien Bourdais. He’s been Honda’s best this week from a no-tow perspective, topping out at 228.657 mph on his own Friday, the fifth-best no-tow lap of the day, trailing only Power, Newgarden, Pagenaud and Ed Carpenter. He was second on the NTS list Thursday, trailing only Power.
Andretti Autosport. Marco Andretti led the way overall Friday with a tow-aided lap of 231.802 mph in the No. 98 U.S. Concrete/Curb Honda, and four of the team’s other five drivers – Ryan Hunter-Reay, Carlos Munoz, Alexander Rossi and Zach Veach – were above 227 mph on the NTS chart.
In spite of the tow-aided numbers, Andretti isn’t impressed with his chances alone on the track.
“Alone, I’m not overwhelmed with the speed,” Andretti said. “I think we’re outside looking in right now in terms of the top nine.”
Ed Carpenter Racing. Ed Carpenter, who has 2013 and 2014 Indy poles to his credit, is in the mix again this year, along with teammates Spencer Pigot and Danica Patrick. All three were over 228 mph without a tow Friday.
Scott Dixon. He was sidelined early in Friday’s session because of a migraine, but came back in the afternoon to knock out a no-tow lap of 227.741 mph. Dixon’s Chip Ganassi Racing teammate, Ed Jones, also recorded an NTS lap over 227 mph.
Tony Kanaan. He was second-fastest overall Thursday, then put himself over the 227 mph NTS mark Friday in the No. 14 ABC Supply A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet.
Those you might not expect:
Robert Wickens. He has three finishes among the top four in his first five Verizon IndyCar Series races, and the 29-year-old Canadian rookie is fast without help in his first run at the Indy oval, topping out at 227.968 mph without a tow Friday in the No. 6 Lucas Oil Schmidt Peterson Motorsports Honda.
“It’s been amazing,” Wickens said of his first Indy 500 experience. “All week, the fans have been here. I was thinking the other day, ‘How are they here? Don’t they have jobs?’ Honestly, it’s amazing. The fans are passionate about this race and this facility. As a driver, it makes it extra special. You go to an engineering meeting and people are yelling your name. For me being a new person to INDYCAR, it’s nice to get recognized. It’s been very kind to me so far, but we’ve only been practicing so far.”
Zachary Claman De Melo. He gave up a previously planned run next month with Dale Coyne Racing at Detroit to replace injured Pietro Fittipaldi in the 500. And, as Claman De Melo was topping 227.186 mph without a tow on Fast Friday, the announcement that Santino Ferrucci will drive the No. 19 DCR Honda in Detroit was being made.
Oriol Servia. Servia put together the deal that brought the defending IMSA GTD champion team Scuderia Corsa to Indy in an alignment with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, and the 43-year-old Spaniard is making it a fast debut. “It's not just being here,” Servia said. “Everyone at this team, everyone from the team, everyone from Scuderia Corsa really has one aim, which is to win this thing.”
Charlie Kimball. Kimball recorded the second-fastest no-tow lap Thursday. With the boost turned up Friday, he went over 227 mph without help.
Matheus Leist. Kanaan’s rookie teammate has impressed in his first five races, including a second-row start in the opener at St. Petersburg, Florida, and a 12th-place finish at Barber Motorsports Park. He’s just a blink behind Kanaan’s pace this week at IMS.
The fastest nine qualifiers from Saturday’s qualifying session advance to the Fast Nine Shootout of Sunday’s session. That determines Verizon P1 Award pole winner and the starting order for the first three rows of the 500.
Saturday's first day of qualifying, when the 33-car field is set, streams live on WatchESPN from 11 a.m.-3 p.m. ET before ABC broadcasts the final two hours live from 4-6 p.m. The starting order of the field is determined in Sunday qualifying, which streams on WatchESPN from 2:30-4 p.m. before ABC picks up the climactic end from 4-6 p.m. The 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500 airs live at 11 a.m. Sunday, May 27 on ABC and the Advance Auto Parts INDYCAR Radio Network.